Friday, December 10, 2010

Will power sharing work in Côte d'Ivoire? 10 critical questions.

Elections for the presidential run off took place in Côte d'Ivoire on Sunday the 28th of November. A curfew was set in place two days before. It is the 10th of November today. What the country has is double of what they voted for: 2 Presidents, 2 Prime Ministers, 2 Parallel governments and 2 electoral authorities. Add the curfew to all of that!

The doubles run deep. In the physical layout of the country itself, in its media, in the administration and within the population. Hardly can you see a neutral Ivorian on the street these days. The Twitter platform that was overtaken by the #civ2010 tweets is also running viral between two extremes. The "objective" tweets are getting rare.

So Mbeki has come and gone. The United Nations, the African Union, the Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie, The Africa-Caribbean-Pacific organisation,the Economic Community of West African States and a host of international financial institutions have made their declarations and have all called for this or that.

Are issues getting sorted out? Is the situation seeing the end of the tunnel? Are the fuzzy areas getting cleared? I cannot say. What we have now is talk of a "unity government", a power sharing government or a national unified government.

For me, here are a few questions that are begging answers..

  1. There have been instances in Zimbabwe and Kenya. Do we have an instance in Africa with the French-speaking countries?
  2. Will the opinion of the voters/population count?
  3. What arrangement will there be for the armed men (since women do not join the army in the country as of now)?
  4. Will this power-sharing be facilitated? If yes, by who?
  5. What will this mean for the electoral commission and the constitutional council? Will they share power too?
  6. In the other elections that follow, if the same "presidential condition" arises, will power sharing also be the option?
  7. Will this hasten or lengthen the peace process in the country or not?
  8. Will the HIPC (Highly Indebted Poor Countries) debt cancellation come through?
  9. Will this power-sharing become a trend in Africa, with the host of elections scheduled for the next years?
  10. To whom will power ultimately be given to? Knowing fully well that in both power sharing instances, ultimate power finally came down to one of the parties.

Just asking...

Monday, December 6, 2010

Understanding the Cote d'Ivoire crisis through the figures

I am trying to make a head out of all the haze around the elections. Here is what I am doing here.
  1. I took the results of the first round. This one was the 'darling'. It was proclaimed by the Commission Electorale Indépendente - CEI, confirmed by the Conseil Constitutionel - CC, certified by the United Nations Chief, and applauded by the whole world. So I figured this one will be the basis since everyone accepted it.
  2. I am looking at the results that have been declared final by the CC. They are on this link.
  3. Then the one by the CEI which is here.

Here is what I am seeing in this juxtaposition:

  1. Number of registered voters. In the first round it was 5 784 490. In the second round, the CEI has the same figures. The CC has 5 725 721. That is a difference of 58 769.
  2. Total number of votes. In the first round it was 4 843 445. For the second round, the CEI has 4,689,321 and the CC has 4 081 765. The difference is 697 556
  3. Invalid votes. For the first round, the total was 225 624 which was 4.66%. For the second round, a lot of ease was given to voters. What we have now is CEI: 101,476 and CC: 88 556. The difference here is 12 920
  4. Number of valid votes. For the first round we had 4 617 821. For the second we have from CEI: 4,657,614 and CC: 3 993 209. The difference here is 664 405
  5. Percentage of voter turn out. For the first round we had: 83.73%. What I see here in the second round is CEI: 80.19% and CC: 71.28%
  6. Results: In the first round, the 3 major candidates totaled 95.35% in the following order Gbagbo: 38.04%, Ouattara 32.07% and Bedié 25.24%.
  7. Alliances. Bedié rallied behind Ouattara. So did Mabri Toikeuse who earned 2.57% and two others. Gbagbo received support from some candidates of the first round.

The results of this second round as we have now is:

CEI, certified by UN:

Ouattara: Winner
Number of votes: 2 521 450
Percentage of votes: 54.14%

Gbagbo: loser
Number of votes: 2 136 149
Percentage of votes: 45.86%


Gbagbo: Winner
Number of votes: 2 054 537
Percentage: 51.45%

Ouattara: loser
Number of votes: 1 938672
Percentage of votes: 48.55%

On canceled votes.

I have heard conflicting reports on areas where votes where canceled. The CEI did not cancel any departments or regions. But the CC canceled votes within some departments in 3 regions. I am taking a look at those departments, especially trying to compare the trends of the first round.

Gbagbo Ouattara
Region Dept 1st Round 2nd Round 1st Round 2nd Round
Savanes Boundiali 5263 5880 42838 51140
Ferké 3032 2774 71082 84153
Korhogo 10110 11135 126646 154890
V Bandama Bouaké 13899 22845 83059 136943
Dabakala 1747 1803 26804 34398
Katiola 5342 6079 28895 38416
Worodougo Seguéla 2444 2002 37406 44552

This is a quick attempt to make a note for myself. I will come back and read the blog and maybe I can make analyses.

Friday, December 3, 2010

Interest in the Ivory Coast explodes on the Internet

Yesterday was a phenomenal day in Côte d'Ivoire. Millions of Ivorians were waiting for the announcement of the presidential run-off elections. Many had kept vigil the night before waiting for same results. The tension was almost palpable.. I took time to note the people using the hashtag #civ2010 on Twitter to comment the events.


The Electoral Commission President announces results suddenly. In the minutes that followed, the President of the Constitutional Council appears on TV to invalidate the announcement. National media does not give an echo to the results pronounced. International media fires it up!

The national audio visual authority announces the suspension of most of the international media that relayed the results.. Then follows the army to announce that the borders, ports and airport are all shut down until further notice.

And the #civ2010 on Twitter increases like wild fire! In the previous blog, I had some 140 users. In 24 hours, I have more than the double. So here is to the #civ2010 people.

@ADO__Solutions @ConseilEnter @jess @phenotwit
@2romeo @cool_isack @jeune_afrique @PierreBoisselet
@5_Star_Dancer @cote_ivoire_10 @jkokolouis @pierredrevon
@7Jdam @cotedivoirevote @joelassoko @Pousky34
@aba78 @couleurkf @jpehouman @QuinteEssence
@ABezardin @Coxxi_Ka @jpeyron @Radio_Africa1
@abidjan_net @croth53 @Kamanzibony @rbamba
@abracabra1 @cuisineanxious @kanazan @rbamba
@adikouadio @cyriacgbogou @kanosouley @RFI_Francais
@africamedia_CPJ @Dalou_Gouto @KapseeK @RichardBuangan
@africatechie @danieleseignot @karamalet @RTI_Officiel
@ags_blog @ddarave @Kasbig @ryerbanga
@AhoumaWilliam @ddcabobo @KatieS @S0ul3
@akandewa @dembagueye @katsuiro @sacregis
@akwedo @Deusking @KirAfrique @sameganegie
@AmericaGovFr @diabymohamed @koskoryma @samsmoop
@Androsvacuna @dickc @kotch73 @Samuel_Lafont
@annagueye @Dipupa @kouamouo @Sanders225
@AnnaIvory @djibrilkonetwt @koumamahamadou @sanjnapatel89
@annayanna2010 @DjWiky @kouya @SarahBaudoa
@anti_gbagbo @dogothetrue @krisskanak @SenamBeheton
@arKeipos @eallogo @ladvocatus @Sessa06
@arnaudcontreras @eliaws @Lagoyu @sevensad80
@arolove06 @elicoopter_afr @lamoufle @Simon_2T
@ARSParis @eliepatrigeon @Larbi_org @SirDarlington
@ATL_SkillZ @Eltomo223 @leboncharly @sixtem63
@atteby @ermartinfr @LEMECTIMIDE @Skyy1712
@attou_225 @Essoh @lemondefr @solofo
@au_gbata @ETAMBA @LeNouvelObs @sonjasugira
@avecado @ettiboa @lesoir @spysamy
@avenue225 @Eurabia @lionelchobli @stefanmeisel
@ayakouassi @euronews @Liveben @stephaaniee20
@babanguidana @exmuros @LoudL @StevenJambot
@banjini @fabricezag @lsaman @studioprodim
@baroquefatigue @fafaex @MacJordaN @Suchablog
@basileniane @farafinet @macmady @sultankech
@baybou1 @FASHIZBLACK_Mag @mamet_kag @susperctn
@belle_deux_fois @Fasokan @mamsthiam @sybechir
@Belligiani @fbouare @Manubrookings @SYC31
@bembelly @felixbriaud @marckhod @teteenyon
@BeninGateway @fokebowo @MaryMary225 @ThatGirlN
@bglossy @france24 @matkonan @theliane
@bienmalacquit @France24_fr @maynalysa @TherealthreeM
@bloggersn @franceonu @mefonga @TheShid
@blogsolidaires @Francois_Bougon @mekyl_web @thierry_ratsiz
@blz2002 @Frederictape @melmodeste_ci @TiTeFLeUR
@boua_7 @FreeBEEz @Menilmuche @tohouri
@broshing @furiatito @miezanezo @tommymiles
@brucebanter @gabnorev @Mika_Wheels @toussine
@byby__ush @gauch0bot @MisterKD @twitafrika
@bzkdjc @Gbagbolaurent @MKasH225 @usnico
@Camso2010 @GhislainLambert @moalla @vincentduhem
@capone30 @Gigi_237RMD @modem @voxafrica
@cartunelo @Gilles_W @monkeydubious @vwyeth
@ceddoo @gloriamika @MouhamedSY @WattaVX
@CFD7 @gmignot @MrMaith @Weloje73
@Chabalis @gouaf @MrZou @wilfriedn
@Chabalis @Heeyva @NICOLAS_NEGOCE @wonzomai
@champico @heideger2010 @nicomedbxl @yapadra
@ChantalBiya @hofrench @nightsnake1975 @Yetenba
@chantalrebelle @hohiere @njomomojojojo @yojedesign
@charleskci @Hopscotch_D @nnenna @yoroba
@ChawkiGhassani @hudin @ocomar @YoungMaSS
@Chris_soFly @Hugothecatalyst @okibat @ziadmaalouf
@chrissyll @ibdlike @olvem @zinebdryef
@Christian_Douti @imaki @onafrica @zionnegus
@christreporter @IshyArt @ourmaninafrica @zwanbourg
@Chroland @isi225 @pacteau
@chuck_carter @ismaelromaric @PaixCIV
@civ2010 @IvoireDiaspo @pandaka36
@cjrichie007 @Jahrow @Panoptique
@CLunang @jazzyy @Parti_Socialist
@coastalpastor @jbgauvin @patageron
@codip @jeanettemallet @PaulLarraouturou
@connectionivoir @jeanschweppes @pdrevon

Thursday, December 2, 2010

The Twitter people of #CIV2010

Since the last week of October, the Ivorian network of what may be called 'concerned net citizens' have been sending out tweets under the #CIV2010 hashtag. Who are they?

Well, discover some of them.. list still under construction..

@ADO__Solutions @diabymohamed @macmady
@bzkdjc @dogothetrue @mamsthiam
@charleskci @eliaws @Manubrookings
@ETAMBA @elicoopter_afr @marckhod
@sacregis @eliepatrigeon @MaryMary225
@Sanders225 @Eltomo223 @Menilmuche
@Sessa06 @Essoh @MKasH225
@wonzomai @Eurabia @MKasH225
@yoroba @fabricezag @NICOLAS_NEGOCE
@abidjan_net @fafaex @nightsnake1975
@adikouadio @FASHIZBLACK_Mag @njomomojojojo
@adikouadio @Fasokan @nnenna
@africamedia_CPJ @fbouare @okibat
@africatechie @felixbriaud @ourmaninafrica
@AhoumaWilliam @france24 @PaixCIV
@akandewa @France24_fr @PaulLarraouturou
@Androsvacuna @franceonu @pdrevon
@AnnaIvory @furiatito @Pousky34
@au_gbata @gabnorev @Radio_Africa1
@avecado @Gbagbolaurent @rbamba
@avenue225 @heideger2010 @rbamba
@ayakouassi @imaki @RFI_Francais
@basileniane @IshyArt @RTI_Officiel
@bienmalacquit @IvoireDiaspo @S0ul3
@boua_7 @Jahrow @samsmoop
@broshing @jazzyy @SarahBaudoa
@brucebanter @jeune_afrique @Sessa06
@Camso2010 @jpehouman @sixtem63
@Camso2010 @jpeyron @spysamy
@cartunelo @kanazan @Suchablog
@ceddoo @kanosouley @teteenyon
@Chabalis @Kasbig @ThatGirlN
@champico @katsuiro @ThatGirlN
@ChawkiGhassani @katsuiro @theliane
@chrissyll @KirAfrique @tohouri
@Christian_Douti @koskoryma @toussine
@christreporter @kouamouo @twitafrika
@Chroland @koumamahamadou @vincentduhem
@civ2010 @kouya @voxafrica
@cjrichie007 @krisskanak @WattaVX
@codip @ladvocatus @Weloje73
@connectionivoir @Lagoyu @wilfriedn
@ConseilEnter @Larbi_org @yojedesign
@cote_ivoire_10 @leboncharly @YoungMaSS
@cotedivoirevote @lemondefr @zwanbourg
@cyriacgbogou @lesoir
@Dalou_Gouto @lsaman
@dembagueye @MacJordaN