Monday, December 6, 2010

Understanding the Cote d'Ivoire crisis through the figures

I am trying to make a head out of all the haze around the elections. Here is what I am doing here.
  1. I took the results of the first round. This one was the 'darling'. It was proclaimed by the Commission Electorale Indépendente - CEI, confirmed by the Conseil Constitutionel - CC, certified by the United Nations Chief, and applauded by the whole world. So I figured this one will be the basis since everyone accepted it.
  2. I am looking at the results that have been declared final by the CC. They are on this link.
  3. Then the one by the CEI which is here.

Here is what I am seeing in this juxtaposition:

  1. Number of registered voters. In the first round it was 5 784 490. In the second round, the CEI has the same figures. The CC has 5 725 721. That is a difference of 58 769.
  2. Total number of votes. In the first round it was 4 843 445. For the second round, the CEI has 4,689,321 and the CC has 4 081 765. The difference is 697 556
  3. Invalid votes. For the first round, the total was 225 624 which was 4.66%. For the second round, a lot of ease was given to voters. What we have now is CEI: 101,476 and CC: 88 556. The difference here is 12 920
  4. Number of valid votes. For the first round we had 4 617 821. For the second we have from CEI: 4,657,614 and CC: 3 993 209. The difference here is 664 405
  5. Percentage of voter turn out. For the first round we had: 83.73%. What I see here in the second round is CEI: 80.19% and CC: 71.28%
  6. Results: In the first round, the 3 major candidates totaled 95.35% in the following order Gbagbo: 38.04%, Ouattara 32.07% and Bedié 25.24%.
  7. Alliances. Bedié rallied behind Ouattara. So did Mabri Toikeuse who earned 2.57% and two others. Gbagbo received support from some candidates of the first round.

The results of this second round as we have now is:

CEI, certified by UN:

Ouattara: Winner
Number of votes: 2 521 450
Percentage of votes: 54.14%

Gbagbo: loser
Number of votes: 2 136 149
Percentage of votes: 45.86%


Gbagbo: Winner
Number of votes: 2 054 537
Percentage: 51.45%

Ouattara: loser
Number of votes: 1 938672
Percentage of votes: 48.55%

On canceled votes.

I have heard conflicting reports on areas where votes where canceled. The CEI did not cancel any departments or regions. But the CC canceled votes within some departments in 3 regions. I am taking a look at those departments, especially trying to compare the trends of the first round.

Gbagbo Ouattara
Region Dept 1st Round 2nd Round 1st Round 2nd Round
Savanes Boundiali 5263 5880 42838 51140
Ferké 3032 2774 71082 84153
Korhogo 10110 11135 126646 154890
V Bandama Bouaké 13899 22845 83059 136943
Dabakala 1747 1803 26804 34398
Katiola 5342 6079 28895 38416
Worodougo Seguéla 2444 2002 37406 44552

This is a quick attempt to make a note for myself. I will come back and read the blog and maybe I can make analyses.


Anonymous said...

Good Work Nnenna! Thanks for that!
But what is strange is that CEI has initially announced 70% of participation for second round, and as you notice the final results given by Bakayoko from CEI at Golf Hotel is 80%. For me there is something not clear in the CEI results for this poll. In fact the CC results gives 71% what is more closer to the initial announcement by CEI.

nii ayertey aryeh said...

thanks for this. But figures alone do not tell the whole truth. the figures can look good(if inflated or there was irregularities) and to portray a certain a certain message which may not be the reality.

Did the CC cancelled invalid votes or just cancelled the votes of some areas? i think that must be put into context.

i'll like to see an analysis of voter turnout regarding both rounds.

Nnenna Nwakanma said...

I have added the links to both results. The CC actually validated 12920 votes ballots that were invalidated by the CEI.

On cancellations, there were none from the CEI but CC annuled votes in certain depts. Originally the complains were on regions then they changed to certain depts.

fakegbagbo said...

Where did you find the "darling" vote data?

Nnenna Nwakanma said...

The first paragraph has both links. In numbers 2 and 3.

fakegbagbo said...

I've seen the links in 2 and 3 which both refer to the 2nd round of voting. A link is however missing to the 1st point's "darling" vote which was universally accepted.

Do you have a link to that data? If it's on this page I'm blind and would be grateful for reiteration in a comment.

fakegbagbo said...

Ahh, I think I see. The two links you give do contain some data on the first round (mainly participation).

What I am looking for is more detailed data on who got what percentage where.