I am trying to make a head out of all the haze around the elections. Here is what I am doing here.
- I took the results of the first round. This one was the 'darling'. It was proclaimed by the Commission Electorale Indépendente - CEI, confirmed by the Conseil Constitutionel - CC, certified by the United Nations Chief, and applauded by the whole world. So I figured this one will be the basis since everyone accepted it.
- I am looking at the results that have been declared final by the CC. They are on this link.
- Then the one by the CEI which is here.
Here is what I am seeing in this juxtaposition:
- Number of registered voters. In the first round it was 5 784 490. In the second round, the CEI has the same figures. The CC has 5 725 721. That is a difference of 58 769.
- Total number of votes. In the first round it was 4 843 445. For the second round, the CEI has 4,689,321 and the CC has 4 081 765. The difference is 697 556
- Invalid votes. For the first round, the total was 225 624 which was 4.66%. For the second round, a lot of ease was given to voters. What we have now is CEI: 101,476 and CC: 88 556. The difference here is 12 920
- Number of valid votes. For the first round we had 4 617 821. For the second we have from CEI: 4,657,614 and CC: 3 993 209. The difference here is 664 405
- Percentage of voter turn out. For the first round we had: 83.73%. What I see here in the second round is CEI: 80.19% and CC: 71.28%
- Results: In the first round, the 3 major candidates totaled 95.35% in the following order Gbagbo: 38.04%, Ouattara 32.07% and Bedié 25.24%.
- Alliances. Bedié rallied behind Ouattara. So did Mabri Toikeuse who earned 2.57% and two others. Gbagbo received support from some candidates of the first round.
The results of this second round as we have now is:
CEI, certified by UN:Ouattara: Winner
Number of votes: 2 521 450
Percentage of votes: 54.14%
Gbagbo: loser
Number of votes: 2 136 149
Percentage of votes: 45.86%
CCGbagbo: Winner
Number of votes: 2 054 537
Percentage: 51.45%
Ouattara: loser
Number of votes: 1 938672
Percentage of votes: 48.55%
On canceled votes.
I have heard conflicting reports on areas where votes where canceled. The CEI did not cancel any departments or regions. But the CC canceled votes within some departments in 3 regions. I am taking a look at those departments, especially trying to compare the trends of the first round.
|
| Gbagbo | Ouattara |
| Region | Dept | 1st Round | 2nd Round | 1st Round | 2nd Round |
| Savanes | Boundiali | 5263 | 5880 | 42838 | 51140 |
| Ferké | 3032 | 2774 | 71082 | 84153 |
| Korhogo | 10110 | 11135 | 126646 | 154890 |
| V Bandama | Bouaké | 13899 | 22845 | 83059 | 136943 |
| Dabakala | 1747 | 1803 | 26804 | 34398 |
| Katiola | 5342 | 6079 | 28895 | 38416 |
| Worodougo | Seguéla | 2444 | 2002 | 37406 | 44552 |
This is a quick attempt to make a note for myself. I will come back and read the blog and maybe I can make analyses.